Hakamartutyan nor tramabanutyun@. energetik entakarucvatsqner, zspum ev global risker

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 11:38:15 +0400

«Ayl@ntranqayin nakhagtser khumb@» nerkayacnum e Tehrani «Aliq» oraterti khmbagir Aram Shahnazaryani verlutsakan hodvats@։

Merdzavor Arevelqi eskalaciayi azdecutyun@ mijazgayin energetik hamakargi ev tntesakan kayunutyan vra

Verjin orerin Merdzavor Arevelqum zargacogh iradardzutyunner@ vkayum en voch te hertakan eskalaciayi, ayl hakamartutyan bnuyti astitchanakan, bayc eakan verapokhman masin, vori hnaravor hetevanqner@ durs en galis taratsashrjanayin anvtangutyan shrjanakneric ev arnchvum global tntesakan hamakargi kayunutyan@։ Irani haravum gtnvogh «Haravayin Pars» gazi hanqavayri ev hamataskhan entakarucvatsqneri nkatmamb harvats@ ev dran hajordats pataskhan gortsoghutyunner@, neraryal Katari heghuk gazi artadrutyan amenamets entakarucvatsqi՝ «Ras Laffan»-i ev Parsic tsoci mi sharq erkrneri energetik entakarucvatsqneri tirakhavorum@, vkayum en hakamartutyan aynpisi zargacman masin, vori shrjanaknerum razmakan gortsoghutyunneri tirakhayin shrjanak@ @ndlaynvum e depi energetik ev logistik nshanakutyan arancqayin obyektner։ Ays hamateqstum kareli e ardzanagrel, vor hakamartutyun@ karogh e teghapokhvel mi hartutyun, vortegh energetik entakarucvatsqneri khatarum@ ditarkvum e vorpes razmavarakan azdecutyan gortsiq, vor@ karogh e azdecutyun unenal voch miayn anmijakan hakarakordneri, aylev aveli layn tntesakan mijavayri vra։

Ays zargacumneri arancqayin arandznahatkutyun@ kayanum e nranum, vor nakhadepayin masshtabov tirakhavorvel en aynpisi entakarucvatsqner, voronq apahovum en voch miayn arandzin erkrneri, ayl amboghj mijazgayin shukayi energetik havasarakshrutyun@։ «Haravayin Pars»-@, vor@ hamarvum e ashkharhi khoshoraguyn gazayin hanqavayreric mek@, Irani ev Katari mijev bazhanvats resurs e, vori @ndhanur pasharner@ gnahatvum en shurj 50 trilion khoranard metr gaz ev aveli qan 50 miliard barel kondensat։ Ays hanqavayri cankacats khapanum anmijapes andradarnum e global gazayin shukayi vra։ Nuyn kerp, «Ras Laffan»-@ handisanum e heghukacvats bnakan gazi ashkharhi amenakhoshor hanguycneric mek@, vori mijocvov apahovvum e hamashkharhayin heghukacvats bnakan gazi matakararumneri motavorapes 20 tokvos@։ Ays hamateqstum kareli e ezrakacnel, vor khosq@ aylevs voch te teghayin entakarucvatsqneri vnasman, ayl global energetik tchartarapetutyan arancqayin tarreri nkatmamb ughghvats harvatsneri masin e։

Irani ardzaganq@, vor@ durs e galis anmijakan razmakan pataskhanneri tramabanutyunic ev teghapokhvum e energetik hamakargeri laynamasshtab tirakhavorman dasht, vkayum e razmavarakan mtatsoghutyan eakan popvokhutyan masin։ Ete nakhord pulerum Tehran@ himnakanum kentronanum er hakarakordi razmakan obyektneri ev entakarucvatsqneri vra, apa ays pulum nkateli e ancum depi aynpisi motecum, vor@ kareli e bnutagrel vorpes «hamakargayin zspum»՝ himnvats voch miayn anmijakan hakarakordi, aylev nra dashnakicneri kensakan entakarucvatsqneri khatarman vra։ AME-um gtnvogh «Habshan»-i gazayin hanguyci, Saudyan Arabiayi «Yanbu»-i navtaveramshakman gortsarani ev Karmir tsovi apamerdz artahanman entakarucvatsqneri vnasum@ cuyc e talis, vor Iran@ pordzum e bardzracnel hakamartutyan gin@ voch miayn Miacyal Nahangneri ev Israyeli, aylev mijazgayin energetik hamakargi hamar։ Ays obyektneri veraberyal arka gnahatakanneri hamadzayn, khatarvats hosqer@ karogh en hasnel orakan shurj 3–4 milion barel navti hamarzheqi, inch@ kazmum e hamashkharhayin arajarki motavorapes 3–4 tokvos@։ Teev ays cucanishner@ arajin hayacqic karogh en chapavor tval, energetik shukaneri karucvatsqayin zgayunutyun@ entadrum e, vor nuynisk 1–2 tokvosanoc khapanumner@ karogh en arajacnel gneri anhamachap atch ev shukaneri ankayunutyan ktruk khoracum։

Ays iravitchakum arandznahatuk ushadrutyan e arzhani Miacyal Nahangneri dirqorvoshum@, vor@, datelov hraparakayin haytararutyunneric, bnutagrvum e erkakiutyamb։ Donald Trampi haytararutyunner@, voronq mi koghmic herqum en Vashingtoni anmijakan nergravvatsutyun@, isk myus koghmic parunakum en kosht sparnaliqner Irani hascein, artacolum en razmavarakan anorvoshutyan tarrer։ Nman motecum@ bnorvosh e ayn iravitchaknerin, erb mets terutyun@ haytnvum e dashnakci gortsoghutyunneri hetevanqov dzevavorvats dinamikayi mej ev miazhamanak pordzum e pahpanel azdecutyun@՝ zerts mnalov laynamasshtab razmakan nergravvatsutyunic։ Ayspisi erkaki mesijner@ hatchakh @nkalvum en hakarak koghmi koghmic vorpes qaghaqakan hstakutyan bacakayutyun kam tulutyan azdak, inch@ karogh e nvazecnel zspman azdecutyun@ ev khrakhusel eskalaciayi sharunakutyun@։

Miazhamanak, taratsashrjanayin ev mijazgayin ardzaganqner@ vkayum en, vor arka e voroshaki dashnakcayin ev qaghaqakan azdecutyan vakuum։ NATO-i arancqayin evropakan andamneri koghmic Irani dem razmakan gortsoghutyunnerin mianalu merzhum@ cuyc e talis, vor Arevmtyan dashinqi nersum bacakayum e miasnakan motecum ays hakamartutyan nkatmamb։ Sa karevor azdak e, qani vor ayn sahmanapakum e Miacyal Nahangneri razmavarakan manevrneri shrjanak@ ev nvazecnum kolektiv zspman mekhanizmneri ardyunavetutyun@։ Mievnuyn zhamanak, Parsic tsoci arabakan erkrner@, voronq haytnvum en arajnayin tirakhneri sharqum, kangnats en bard razmavarakan @ntrutyan arjev. nranq mi koghmic kakhvats en AMN-i anvtangutyan erashkhiqneric, myus koghmic՝ krum en ayd anvtangutyan tchartarapetutyan sahmanapakumneri ev terutyunneri anmijakan hetevanqner@։

Ays hamateqstum arandznahatuk nshanakutyun uni naev Hormuzi neghuci gortson@։ Hamashkharhayin navti orakan matakararumneri motavorapes 20–30 tokvos@ ev heghukacvats bnakan gazi zgali mas@ ancnum en ays neghucov։ Navarkutyan cankacats khapanum aystegh anmijapes veratsvum e global shoki։ Patmakan pordz@ cuyc e talis, vor nuynisk sahmanapak mijadeper@ Hormuzum hangecrel en navti gneri ktruk atchi՝ 10–20 tokvosov mi qani oreri @ntacqum։ Ete nerkayis eskalacian sharunakvi ev taratsvi depi tsovayin ughiner, apa hnaravor e patkeracnel scenar, vortegh navti gin@ kancni 120–150 dolari shem@ mek bareli hamar, isk vorosh tsayrahegh gnahatakannerov՝ nuynisk khasni 200 dolari։ Sa arden voch miayn energetik, aylev hamakargayin tntesakan tchgnazhami azdak klini։

Energetik shukaneri vra azdecutyun@ chi sahmanapakvum miayn gneri tatanumnerov։ Heghukacvats bnakan gazi shukan, vor@ verjin tarinerin Evropayi ev Asiayi hamar dzerq e berel razmavarakan nshanakutyun, hatkapes khoceli e nman zargacumneri nkatmamb։ Katarimatakararumneri khatarum@ karogh e arajacnel zgali deficit, vor@ dzhvar klini arag lracnel ayl artadroghneri koghmic, qani vor heghukacvats bnakan gazi entakarucvatsqner@ pahanjum en erkarazhamket nerdrumner ev chen karogh operativ kerpov @ndlaynvel։ Ardyunqum, Evropayum gazi gner@ karogh en veradarnal energetik tchgnazhamizhamanakahatvatsi makardaknerin, isk Asiayi khoshor nermutsoghner@, inchpisiq en Tchaponian ev Haravayin Korean, stipvats klinen mrcakcel sahmanapak resursneri hamar։

Ays amen@ berum e ayn ezrakacutyan, vor hakamartutyun@ karogh e mtnel ayn pul, vortegh energetikan darnum e voch te parzapes gortson, ayl arajnayin zenq։ Sa nor erevuyt che patmutyan mej, sakayn nerkayis globalacvats tntesutyan paymannerum dra hetevanqner@ bazmapatik aveli layn en։ Ete 1973 tvakani navtayin tchgnazham@ paymanavorvats er qaghaqakan voroshmamb՝ matakararumneri sahmanapakmamb, apa nerkayis iravitchakum khosq@ fizikakan entakarucvatsqneri ughghaki vochnchacman kam khatarman masin e, inch@ shat aveli dzhvar e verahskel ev arag verakangnel։

Hamashkharhayin tntesutyan vra azdecutyun@, nman zargacman depqum, klini bazmashert։ Arajin hertin, energakirneri gneri atch@ anmijapes khangecni inflyaciayi atchi՝ hatkapes zargacats tntesutyunnerum, vortegh verjin tarinerin arden nkatvum e gnatchayin tchnshum։ Erkrord. matakararman shghtaneri khatarum@, vor@ kakhvats e voch miayn energakirnerc, ayl naev tsovayin pokhadrumneri kayunutyunic, karogh e arajacnel artadrutyan ankum ev arevtri krtchatum։ Errord. finansakan shukaner@, ardzaganqelov anorvoshutyan@, karogh en mtnel bardzr tatanoghakanutyan pul, inch@ bacasabar kandradarna nerdrumneri tsavali ev tntesakan atchi vra։ Ays bolvor khndirneri hamadrutyun@ dzevavorum e global tntesakan ankman irakan risk, hatkapes ete eskalacian erkaradzgvi։

Ays bolvor gortsonner@ miasin dzevavorum en mi patker, vortegh hakamartutyun@ durs e galis dasakan razmakan tramabanutyunic ev veratsvum e hamakargayin tchgnazhami։ Ete ays @ntacq@ sharunakvi, apa amenahavanakan zargacum@ klini taratsashrjanayin paterazmi ev energetik shoki hamadrutyun@։ Sa knshanakisharunakakan harvatsner entakarucvatsqneri dem, tsovayin ughineri nkatmamb sparnaliqi atch ev tntesakan tchnshman khoracum։ Ayspisi scenar@ karogh e pahpanvel erkar zhamanak՝ steghtselov mshtakan ankayunutyun ev bardzr risker։

Ampopelov՝ kareli e ardzanagrel, vor nerkayis zargacumner@ vkayum en mijazgayin energetik ev qaghaqakan kargi veradzevavorman masin։ Erb energetik entakarucvatsqner@ darnum en arajnayin tirakh, isk global shukan՝ hakamartutyan anmijakan masnakic, hakamartutyan hetevanqner@ aylevs chen sahmanapakvum taratsashrjanov։ Dranq taratsvum en yuraqanchyur tntesutyan ev yuraqanchyur petutyan vra, vor@ kakhvats e energetik matakararumneric։ Ays imastov, teghi unecogh@ petq e ditarkel voch te vorpes hertakan tchgnazham, ayl vorpes hamakargayin shrjadardz, vori azdecutyun@ karogh e zgacvel tariner sharunak։

Aram Shahnazaryan
«Aliq» oratert