«Hraparak». 2027-i byujen kazmel en Hayastani hamar npastavor zargacumneri hashvarkov

Tue, 27 Oct 2026 11:15:27 +0400

HH byujei 2027-i tsragri masin zrucel enq finansneri nakhkin nakharar, hanrayin finansneri karavarman mijazgayin khorhrdatu Vardan Aramyani het:

– Vorvo՞nq en himnakan mtahogich keter@, voronq nkateciq 2027-i byujei tsragrum:

– Erku masov ditarkenq՝ inch unenq makromakardakum, ev vortegh en taqnvats vtangner@։ Makroscenari u byujei @ndhanur karucvatsqi tesankyunic, vor@ finansneri nakhararutyan mandati nerqvo e, karogh em asel՝ vat gorts chen arel։ Erevum e, vor finansneri nakhararutyun@ lav janq e gortsadrel։ Byujeov nakhatesvum e HNA-i nkatmamb pakasurdi astitchanakan nvazum. ete 2026 tvakann avartvi 4 tokvosov, apa 2027-2029 tvakannerin ayn knvazi hamapataskhanabar minchev 3,4, 2,8 ev 1,8 tokvos՝ partq/HNA haraberakcutyun@ 47 tokvosi makardakum kayun pahelu hamar։ Sa tchisht motecum e byujetayin kayunutyan tesankyunic։ Nakhatesvum e naev harker/HNA cucanishi barelavum՝ 2027-in shurj 0,5 tokvosayin ketov, isk 2028-2029 tt․՝ evs 0,1 ev 0,2 tokvosayin ketov։ Bayc khndir@ haskanalu hamar petq e nayenq tntesakan atchi karucvatsqin։ Karavarutyun@ 2027-in aknkalum e 5,8 tokvos tntesakan atch՝ 2026-i 5, 6 tokvosi dimac։ Harcn ayn e, te vor tchyughern en apahovelu ayd atch@։ Nakhord 4-5 tarinerin tntesutyan himnakan sharzhich@ eghel e voch artahaneli hatvats@՝ shinararutyun@, tsarayutyunnern u arevtur@։ 2027-in karavarutyunn aknkalum e, vor ayd hatvatsneri atch@ poqr-inch kdandaghi, isk ardyunaberutyan atch@ karagana՝ hasnelov 7,4 tokvosi։ Ardyunaberutyan himnakan sharzhich@, inchpes ays tari, linelu e hanqardyunaberutyun@՝ himnakanum Amulsari gortsarkman hashvin։ Aystegh mtahogutyun ka. ete 2027-in ardyunaberutyunn atchi 7,4 tokvosov, ardyvo՞q 2028-in hnaravor klini apahovel 6,2 tokvos atch։ Ete iravitchak@ chpokhvi, es ayd kankhatesman veraberyal lurj kaskatsner unem։

– Inchvo՞ւ:

– Vorovhetev ardyunaberutyan neruzh@, ete hanqardyunaberutyun@ mi koghm dnenq, khist tulacats e։ Ardyunaberutyan atch@ himnakanum hanqardyunaberutyan hashvin e․ ays tarva 5,9 tokvos aknkalvogh atch@ paymanavorvats e metaghneri bardzr gnerov, isk 2027t․ 7,4 tokvos atch@՝ Amulsari gortsarkmamb։ 2025-in pghndzi mijin gin@ mek tonnayi hamar 10 hazar dolar er, ayzhm khosum enq 14 hazar 300 dolari masin։ Da npastel e avelacvats arzheqi ev irakan tsavalneri atchin՝ 2026-i hamar։ Bayc dzhvar e patkeracnel, vor arajika 3 tarum ginn an@ndhat atchi ev hasni, orinak, 20 hazar dolari։ Tesakanoren hnaravor e, sakayn pordz@ cuyc e talis, vor pghndzi gneri atch@ mi pah kang e arnum։ Isk 2018-ic i ver menq pghndzi gneri sharunakakan atch enq tesnum։

– Isk inchvo՞ւ e da khndir:

– Mshakogh ardyunaberutyan khndirner@ erevum en naev bankayin hamakargi՝ tntesutyan@ tramadrats varkeri karucvatsqic։ 2026-i septemberi drutyamb ardyunaberutyan@ bazhin e @nknum varkayin portfeli @ndamen@ 7,6 tokvos@՝ sparoghakan varkeric mot 3 angam pakas։ 2018-i mayisic varkayin portfeln atchel e shurj 6,6 trilion dramov, voric ardyunaberutyan bazhinn @ndamen@ 182 miliardn e, ev na amenaverjinn e cucakum՝ atchi metsutyan tesankyunic։ Hamematutyan hamar՝ sparoghakan varkern atchel en 1,7 trilion, hipoteqayin varker@՝ 1,6, isk shinararutyan volorti varkavorum@՝ shurj 1 trilion dramov։ Tarberutyunner@ khosun en․ pogh@ chi ughghvum depi artadroghakan ev artahaneli tchyugher։ Usti tntesakan atchi himqer@ sharunakum en mtahogich mnal։ Ete artaqin gortsonneri azdecutyun@ tulana, ev tntesakan atch@ zgalioren catsr lini tsragrvatsic, harkayin ekamutner@ evs knvazen։ Ayd depqum karavarutyun@ stipvats klini krtchatel tsakhser@, isk ete chkaroghana dranq optimalacnel, katchen pakasurdn u partq@։ Tsakhser@ krtchatel@ dzhvar e linelu, qani vor @ntacik tsakhser@ 2025-i hamemat nakhatesvum e avelacnel shurj 700 miliard dramov։ Erb @ntacik tsakhser@ bardzranum en, dranq hetagayum krtchatel@ grete anhnar e darnum։ Orinak՝ ete aroghjapahakan apahovagrutyan hamar gumar@ chbavarari, karavarutyun@ petq e krtchati apahovagrakan tsatskuyt@ kam shaharuneri tiv@, inch@ qaghaqakanapes bard e։ Hanrayin hatvatsi ashkhatavardzeri bardzracum@, @st tarber gnahatakanneri, karogh e byujei tsakhsern avelacnel 25-35 miliard dramov։ Ete harkayin ekamutner@ nvazen, karavarutyun@ petq e hamarzheq tsakhser krtchati, ete chi cankanum metsacnel pakasurd@, bayc ashkhatavardzeri bardzracum@ het shrjel@ evs dzhvar klini։ Nuyn@ veraberum e kensatoshaknerin․ 10 hazar dramov bardzracum@ byujei hamar 73-78 miliard drami ber e steghtsel, ev dzhvar e patkeracnel, vor karavarutyun@ het kkangni ayd voroshumic։ Ardyunqum tsakhseri krtchatman himnakan ber@ karogh e @nknel kapital tsakhseri vra՝ tulacnelov tntesakan neruzh@։ Isk da khangecni hajord tarva aveli catsr tntesakan atchi։

– @ntacik tsakhseri masov i՞nch iravitchak unenq:

– Karavarutyun@ chapic shat partavorutyunner e vercrel @ntacik tsakhseri masov․ 2025-i hamemat nakhatesvum e shurj 700 miliard drami atch։ Karogh en asel, vor harkayin ekamutnern el en avelanalu 738 miliard dramov։ Da tchisht e, bayc ayd atch@ hnaravor klini, ete artaqin ashkharhum pahpanven mer tntesutyan hamar barenpast paymanner@։ Ete taratsashrjanum hakamartutyunner@ srven, Ukrainayi ev Rusastani paterazmn aveli khorana, Hayastan ekogh hosqer@ karogh en avelanal, ev 2027-@ krkin barenpast tari linel։ Bayc i՞nch klini, ete aydpes chlini։ Finansneri nakhararutyunn ir riskeri bazhnum makrotntesakan riskeric hnaravor korust@ gnahatel e shurj 65 miliard dram, isk dranc tsatskman hamar nakhatesel e 41 miliard drami pahustayin fond, bayc aydtegh chka im matnanshats riskeri gnahatakan@, vor@ havanakan e, bayc khist dzhvargnahateli։ Khndirn ayn e, vor finansneri nakhararutyun@ risker@ gnahatum e՝ elnelov nerkayis mitumneri sharunakutyunic ev arandzin gortsonneri hnaravor popvokhutyunneric։ Orinak՝ ete Rusastani patzhamijocner@ mnan nuyn makardaki vra, HNA-i atch@ spasvatsic catsr lini, harker/HNA cucanish@ chbarelavvi, kam nermutsum@ kankhatesvatsic qich lini։ Bayc i՞nch klini, ete gazi gin@ krknapatkvi, Rusastan@ sahmanapaki depi Hayastan trichqner@՝ krtchatelov zbosashrjayin hosqer@, kam sahmanapaki zhamanakavor ashkhatuzhi mutq@ Rusastan։ Ete ays gortsonneric mi qanis@ miazhamanak i hayt gan, khndir@ karogh e shat aveli khor linel, qan gnahatel e finansneri nakhararutyun@, isk mer tntesakan atchi nerkayis karucvatsqn i zoru chi linelu eapes dimadrel ays bacasakan erevuytnerin։ Tntesutyunn organizmi nman e․ ete bacasakan azdecutyun@ poqr chapabazhinnerov e, organizm@ karogh e harmarvel, bayc ete kartch zhamanakum mets lini, karogh e lurj cncum arajacnel։ Aystegh karevor e e՛ւ bacasakan scenari khorutyun@, e՛ւ dra vra azdogh gortsonneri zhamanakayin ham@nknum@։ Ete, orinak, rus-ukrainakan paterazmum dadar lini, inch@ hnaravor e, kam Iran-AMN-Israyel hakamartutyun@ erkaratev sarecvi, depi Hayastan aknkalvogh hosqer@ karogh en chlinel։ Ardyunqum shinararutyun@ 2027-in karogh e voch te atchel 7,4 tokvosov, ayl nuynisk ankum ardzanagrel։ Nuyn@ veraberum e tsarayutyunnerin․ karavarutyan aknkalats 5,5 tokvos atchi pokharen karogh e ankum linel, ete Hayastan ayceluneri hosq@ nvazi։

– Stacvum e՝ byujei nakhagtsum hnaravor risker@ nkati che՞n unecel:

– Finansneri nakhararutyun@ byujein kic bacatragrum lav nerkayacrel e tesaneli risker@՝ pokharzheqi arzhezrkman ev nermutsman dandaghman hnaravor hetevanqner@ ev ayln։ Bayc, im kartsiqov, 2 karevor hangamanq hashvi chi arnvel։ Nakh՝ antesvum e tntesakan atchi nerkayis karucvatsq@։ Erkrord՝ entadrvum e, vor tntesutyan dimadroghakanutyunn u apaga HNA steghtselu hnaravorutyun@ bardzr en, ev nuynisk Rusastani kosht qayleri depqum shghtayakan lurj khndirner chen arajana։ Es, sakayn, kartsum em, vor hnaravor e naev bacasakan scenar, qani vor tntesakan atchi gerakshir mas@ steghtsvum e voch artahaneli hatvatsum։ Ete artaqin hosqer@ kangnen kam hakarak ughghutyamb sharzhven, lurj khndirner kunenanq։ Ayd hosqer@ karogh en dadarel, qani vor dranq kakhvats chen Hayastani gortsoghutyunneric, aravel evs՝ vor gortsogh karavarutyunn ir artaqin qaghaqakanutyamb aveli e srum iravitchak@։ Rusastanciner@ Hayastan en ekel, isk nerdrumner@ vorosh bnakaranayin shukanerum ughghvel en Hayastan, voch te Dubay, voch ayn pattcharov, vor Hayastan@ Dubayic aveli mrcunak e dardzel, kam ansharzh guyqn u tntesakan herankarnern aveli gravich en։ Pattcharn ayn e, vor Dubay@ dardzel e aveli riskayin։ Orinak՝ moskvaci unevor hay nerdrogh@ gumarner@ diversifikacnelu hamar karogh e nakh@ntrel Tbilisium kam Erevanum ansharzh guyq gnel՝ Dubayi pokharen։ Vrastann el e bardzr temperov atchum․ hunvar-ogostosin atch@ kazmel e 7,6 tokvos։ Sakayn, i tarberutyun Hayastani, Vrastani artahanumn el e lav atchum՝ shurj 24 tokvosov, minchder Hayastanum artahanum@ nvazum e։

– Rusakan koghmi hnaravor patzhamijocner@ hashvi arnelov, da 2027-i tntesakan patkeri vra inchpe՞s kazdi:

– Kentronakan bank@ gnahatel e, vor ete Rusastani nerkayis patzhamijocner@ pahpanven, aysinqn՝ chhanven ev chkhstacven, Hayastani HNA-n karogh e korcnel 1,5-2 tokvosayin ket։ Es hamadzayn em ayd gnahatakani het։ Entadrum em, vor karavarutyunn ir kankhatesumnerum hashvi e arnum gortsonner, voronq karogh en pokhhatucel ayd vnas@։ Mek@ Amulsari hanqi gortsarkumn e․ dra hamar varchapet@ gnac ev zhapaven@ ktrec, chnayats 2018-in aghmuk er bardzracnum dra shurj։ Myus@ NVIDIA-i tvyalneri kentronn e, vori amboghjakan gortsarkum@ karogh e HNA-i atchin avelacnel 0,8-1 tokvosayin ket։ Bayc ays 2 hangamanqn el khndraharuyc en։ Ardyunaberutyan myus tchyugher@, hatkapes mshakogh ardyunaberutyun@, dzhvarutyunneri mej en, ev ete iravitchak@ sharunakvi, karogh en eakan vnasner krel։ Vogelic khmichq ev ayl artadranq Rusastan artahanoghner@ petq e ka՛m nor shukaner gtnen, ka՛m krtchaten artadrutyan tsavalner@։ Rusastani koghmic hnaravor erkrord bacasakan azdecutyun@ finansakan hosqeri krtchatumn e։ Ete dranq nvazen, khndirner karajanan hatkapes tsarayutyunneri ev shinararutyan volortnerum։ I dep, Rusastani patzhamijocneri azdecutyun@ tntesakan atchi vra ays pahin karogh e hamematabar poqr linel, bayc socialakan azdecutyun@՝ aveli zgali։ Tuzhogh apranqatesakner@ himnakanum arnchvum en gyughatntesakan hamaynqnerin, isk ayd vnasnern anmijapes socialakan khndirner en arajacnum։